Consumer confidence in Northern Ireland edged up in the fourth quarter of 2024, helped by people feeling more optimistic about their current and future finances, according to new analysis from Danske Bank.
The bank’s quarterly Consumer Confidence Index rose by four points to 132 in the final quarter of last year, as people also reported improved expectations of spending on high-value products.
Optimism in relation to Northern Ireland’s political stability and the lower rate of inflation also contributed towards a more positive outlook.
Danske Bank’s analysis showed sentiment increased by a total of 18 points over the course of the year, reflecting consumer resilience in the face of underlying challenges, including the lingering impact of higher prices and higher interest rates.
Confidence was around nine percent above the survey’s long-term average, with a notable boost coming from the improvement in sentiment regarding current finances, which reached a three-year high in the final quarter of 2024.
The survey was completed in December 2024 by 1000 people from across Northern Ireland.
Danske Bank Economist Hannah Martin said:
“Consumer confidence in Northern Ireland increased in the final quarter of last year, following the loss of momentum in quarter three, as people felt more positive about their current and future finances.
“Most survey respondents also reported that they expected to spend the same amount, or more, on higher value-items such as furniture or holidays over the coming year. Several factors may be influencing this more optimistic outlook, including the lower rate of inflation relative to that experienced over the last few years, and rising wages, both of which support spending power. Overall confidence levels were around 9% higher than the long-term average in Northern Ireland.”
Confidence regarding current finances was up six points over the quarter and reached a three-year high at the end of 2024.
The survey suggested that consumers’ outlook for 2025 also improved, with increased confidence regarding both future finances (up three points) and expected spending on high value items (up 10 points).
However, survey respondents noted a slight decline in confidence around job security, with the sub-index falling two points from its previous record high of 115 in 2024 Q3, despite the labour market remaining relatively tight.
Political stability following the restoration of the Executive in Northern Ireland boosted sentiment for 17% of respondents, down slightly from 21% in Q3, while global risks weighed on confidence for 13% of people surveyed.
Hannah Martin added:
“Households and businesses are continuing to feel the lingering impacts of past price rises and interest rates that are higher than experienced over much of the past 15 years. There are also risks, largely stemming from rising global uncertainty and from some of the announcements in the UK Budget last autumn, that could lead inflation to increase again.
“One in three survey respondents said the impact of higher prices on household finances had the largest negative impact on confidence.
“How the rate of inflation moves during 2025, and any impacts that could have on the current pace of interest rate reductions, are likely to be key determinants of consumer confidence and household spending growth this year.”
